The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

[Shadow1980]

Here's some charts to supplement what I was talking about the other night:

That puts into picture just how fast the DS declined after it was replaced. Switch shipments did decline at a slightly slower rate in 2025 than the DS did in 2011 (-60.8% vs. -65.2%), but it is also worth noting that the DS was replaced earlier in its replacement year than the Switch was (March vs. June) so the Switch had a much softer decline in Q1 2025 than the DS did in Q1 2011. Still, the Switch was already selling a lot less in the lead-up to its replacement than the DS was. The Switch peaked earlier in its life than the DS (in most places; more on this in a bit). And when you align them to their replacement years, you see that the DS managed better average sales in the time prior to its replacement (5.78M/quarter, vs. 4.61M/quarter for the Switch), but the Switch had the advantage of a longer life cycle (33 quarters before replacement, vs. 25 for the DS), the latter of which eventually put the Switch in the lead.

Looking at the regional breakdown we also see some interesting data. The DS may have peaked late globally, but that wasn't the case in Japan:

Japan is the region keeping the Switch's post-replacement situation from being worse than it already is. The DS peaked much earlier there than elsewhere, dropping below 4M for the two years after its very strong peak in 2006-07. After the 3DS came out, though, the DS cratered hard, dropping over 77% in 2011 from 2010. In 2012 it sold less than 70k units. In fact, Nintendo only shipped 20k DS units to Japan in Q1 2012 and another 10k in Q2 before ceasing shipments entirely. Meanwhile, the Switch is still doing decently in Japan. While it dropped off another 60+% in January, its sales volume is still far more comparable to that of the GBA, making it the only Nintendo system to not completely die off in short order in Japan this century after having an official official replacement released. Still, at its current rate of decline, it might do only half a million this year.

Now for the U.S.:

Here we see a sales curve for the DS that more closely resembles global shipments. The DS peaked rather late in the U.S., with a slow start and sales ramping up after first the Lite and then continuing to grow for several years afterward. While sales did drop off a lot in 2011 after the 3DS was released, the DS was still doing quite well for a while, enough to where it actually had better legs than most other Nintendo systems, both in terms of absolute numbers and share of lifetime sales.

Meanwhile, the Switch peaked much earlier. It's sales in the three-year period of 2022-24 weren't even half of what the DS's were in 2008-10. Its sales in 2025 were down over 60% YoY, and were not only nearly 70% less than what the DS sold in 2011, but also considerably less than what the DS sold in 2012.

If both shipment data and VGC numbers are any indication, Europe is pretty much the same as the U.S. when it comes to how the Switch has been faring post-replacement versus the DS.

In summary, there is really good reason to expect that the Switch's sales will not be enough to propel it to the 160M mark. While the Switch is faring better than the DS in Japan, that is more than offset by worst post-replacement sales in other major markets. So, I'm still sticking with 157-158M.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 09 February 2026