Is Metroid Prime 4 in trouble?

[Otter]

I would take all of those numbers with a massive pinch of salt.

Especially with budget estimation, notice how they always land perfectly on a nice round/number like 100m lol. I suspect it needs to sell north of 2m but I wouldn't estimate break even at 4.5-5m.

Lots of different guesses out there but apparently Ghost of Yotei broke even at 1.6m

"Ghost of Yotei has sold 1.6M+ copies through to consumers (2M+ when we include sell-in to retailers), translating into nearly $100 million in revenue"... Haven't dissected the numbers as I'm not that invested but I doubt Metroid needs 5m.
https://alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/ghost-of-yotei-is-a-success-as-battlefield

None the less a game like this (One that restarted development with a new developer), shouldn't be judged through the same success metrics. Nintendo know they would be able to develop a sequel at near or less half of the cost with the foundations in place and without the mistake of handing it to Bandai Namco (same happened with FFVII Remake lmao). But again I'm not putting too much weight in the 100m number to begin with.

Side note but crazy props to Sucker Punch for delivering a true AAA experience in around a 60m budget (that number comes from them directly)