The world isn't the same. Tariffs in the USA, Switch 2 is doing better than PS3, and so on.
Nintendo could've already outsold PS2 or close to it if around 2023-2024 they dropped prices to the SKUs by a lot. $199.99 for Switch, $99.99-$129.99 for Switch Lite, $229.99-$249.99 for Switch OLED. That would've probably been tough to get a profit on the hardware, hence why Nintendo didn't do it. They do love selling their software, but they like selling it at top prices and they have sold consoles at a profit the majority of the time.
Unless Nintendo manufactures Switch for a while or has a stockpile of them, I really don't see surpassing PS2 as the most likely scenario.
I know Switch only has about 7 million units left to hit that milestone, but that would be a crawl given the changing market conditions and the popularity of Switch 2 and PS5. Switch can probably sell several million in 2026, but I'm skeptical it will crack 1 million units or more in 2027. By its 10th year on the market, it will likely be near-death in hardware sales.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)
PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)
Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima
