When will the Switch pass 160M?

[Norion]

firebush03 said:

Norion said:

You misunderstood what I was saying. 2012 is the year after the 3DS came out like how 2026 will be the after the Switch 2 came out so I was showing that the Switch will need to suddenly start doing significantly better than the DS after this fiscal year to have any chance. It's not a direct comparison since the 3DS released a few months earlier in its year but that doesn't change things much.

The 3DS price cut happened at the end of July which made it sell way better in August and September and the DS did significantly decline those months but it still sold notably better than the Switch did those months this year so the Switch is still performing worse than the DS post 3DS so far even after the big price cut. Cause of that I see no reason for things to change in a big way in the coming months especially with the forecast being adjusted downwards. Unless a surprise final revision does end up happening it's truly over now I'd say.

oops my bad. Glancing at VGChartz estimates, I do see what you are saying, though I suppose we’ll just need to wait it out. If Switch does match what DS had left in the tank post-October 2011, then…I’ll need to crunch some numbers.

(Though worth noting is the reliability of VGChartz estimates. Shipment data seems to paint a slightly different picture from what I can tell, as you’d see DS shipments go from >1mil/Q to only 2mil during the holiday quarter, followed by a collapse in 2012, potentially suggesting a greater impact from the price cut than VGChartz projects.)

If it matches it going forward it'll end up at almost exactly 159m though with the forecast adjustment I don't see it shipping 2m this holiday so it should be further behind by the end of the fiscal year. The estimates are actually very reliable in this case since the DS's final sales total and shipments for each quarter are known alongside the date from Famitsu and whatnot. With the Switch and Switch 2 only needing to be adjusted slightly in response to this quarter it's quite reliable for current consoles too with the possible exception of the Xbox Series due to a relative lack of data for that one.

The Xbox One's final total was originally at 50.5m on here but then it was randomly revealed to be 58m some time later so the Xbox Series could be a couple to few million off. Though even if that happens the current estimates will still be close enough that the overall picture will stay the same so the estimates even for that are still valuable.

Last edited by Norion - on 06 November 2025