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Norion on 06 November 2025
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firebush03 said:
Norion said:

The biggest reason this is very unlikely to happen at this point is the Switch post Switch 2 is selling worse than the DS did post 3DS so far when it needs to be doing better. The DS was at 151.52m shipped by the end of March 2012 and only shipped another 2.5m after that so assuming the Switch is at 156-156.5m by the end of March next year it has to suddenly go from doing worse to doing significantly better than the DS post successor to reach 160m.

March 2012? Didn’t 3DS release March 2011? And 3DS sold well over ten million post-NS1 launch… granted that was a very special scenario.

Pulling the numbers from March 2011: DS was still at 146mil. So… that strengthens NS1’s case for catching up to 160mil, no?

edit: Also, a very important detail pertaining to DS after the launch of 3DS— the 3DS was not selling well from March through September 2011 due to the $250USD price tag. Once the price dropped in Fall 2011, so too would DS sales fall off a cliff. Switch maintaining close pace with DS currently suggests it’ll likely be well ahead of DS pace in the not-too-distant future. And so, if DS could pull 6mil post-3DS, then there’s no reason for Switch to fall short.

You misunderstood what I was saying. 2012 is the year after the 3DS came out like how 2026 will be the after the Switch 2 came out so I was showing that the Switch will need to suddenly start doing significantly better than the DS after this fiscal year to have any chance. It's not a direct comparison since the 3DS released a few months earlier in its year but that doesn't change things much.

The 3DS price cut happened at the end of July which made it sell way better in August and September and the DS did significantly decline those months but it still sold notably better than the Switch did those months this year so the Switch is still performing worse than the DS post 3DS so far even after the big price cut. Cause of that I see no reason for things to change in a big way in the coming months especially with the forecast being adjusted downwards. Unless a surprise final revision does end up happening it's truly over now I'd say.

Last edited by Norion - on 06 November 2025