Shtinamin_ said:
3DS in 2019 had 26% decline. PS2 in both 2008 & 2009 had 21% declines. PS3 in 2015 had a 25% decline. After their 50-70% decline in the first year, in their second year there is a stabilization in sales. Ive found it helps to look at the full data trend, though I’m not perfect at doing it either, no worries there. It is still a yearly decline YoY overall, but is not steep. As stated earlier, the DS decline is a hard floor. And the 3DS is a hard ceiling. A sub-40% decline can be a reality, and I believe is the possibility with the Switch in 2026 in Japan. Switch 2 has constrained sign-ups, it is consistent and healthy. Though it can lead many to get the cheaper and more immediate option, a Switch. When I speak of a stabilization year, this means that there will still be a YoY decline, it will not be fall but a shallower decline. Stabilization does not mean an overall growth.
We’ll also take a look at more recent Rhythm Heaven and Tomadachi. Rhythm Heaven Gold during a mid/late life cycle of Wii boosted hardware by 118%. Tomadachi Life during a mature era of 3DS boosted hardware by 140%. While a weekly hardware uplift is modest in available data (for smaller less prominent IP’s), the fact that a game could launch and register tens of thousands of hardware sales at their consoles life stage supports the idea of residual demand and hardware elasticity among particular demographics. Like the ones I explained earlier. Late-cycle exclusives aimed a different demographics can still and have created localized boosts (Japan is not the exception).
So yes, a 35% decline YoY (1.0M) for Switch in Japan in 2026 is a viable, expectation. It’ll be a stabilization year with minor intra-year rebounds like I listed in Jul-Sept. This isn’t wishful thinking but based on historical data/trends to represent what a coexistence market looks like. You have your interpretation, I present mine. We each present evidences, weighing in on their strengths and weaknesses.
I’ll be happy to be proven wrong if that’s how it turns out to be, hopefully we both can be open to what turns out. That kind of openness demonstrates growth. |
The 3DS went from a bit over 540k in 2018 to under 200k in 2019 and the PS3 430k in 2014 to under 190k in 2015 so that's completely wrong. I don't know what source you're using but it's not accurate at all so just use the data on here instead. The yearly charts index under charts has data up to the end of 2018 and hardware by date under tools has stuff after that so those pages will help you make better informed posts.
For the software part your examples don't help your case at all. US/UM boosted sales somewhat for a bit but I made a point to reference non-exclusive software and that was a 3DS only game and the Switch 1 isn't getting any more notable exclusive games thanks to backwards compatibility. For the rest of the 3DS ones going from 8-9k to 11-12k for one week doesn't mean anything and this is especially the case for the DS example since Black/White 2 making it go from 950 one week to 1600 the next week is meaningless and not even remotely as high as a 900% increase so I dunno where you got that from.
You keep making posts that are misinformed so again you should really take the time to look at the data on here since it'll help you make posts with much better analysis.
Last edited by Norion - on 25 October 2025
