| Ryuu96 said: Economy is going brilliantly guys, the stock market is high! |
Regarding inflation data, 0.3% for the month should be plenty to vindicate the Fed for not lowering rates and keep them on the "wait and see" track a while longer. While 2.7% yearly isn't terrible on its face, it coincided with a decrease in real earnings, so if this keeps up, we'll be back in a rough spot of inflation outpacing wage growth (as long as wage growth stays higher). Further, looking back at last year's numbers, we'd need a 0.4% increase next month to get back to 3.0% yearly which would be pretty bad optics for Trump.
Next economic release on my radar is the preliminary Q2 GDP numbers in a couple weeks. These numbers are essentially going to be the bounce back from the terrible Q1 which was largely caused by a spike in imports to beat the tariffs, so a lot of predictions had some pretty high numbers (GDPnow had 4+% for a short time) but current predictions are more in line with the normal mid 2% (GDPnow at 2.6%). While that number would look pretty normal, it would be a pretty disastrous bounce back and I'd be curious if we'd follow that up by settling into a new norm sub 1%. We need to outpace standard growth for a few quarters to make up for the terrible Q1.
