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At this point, it's quite probable Nintendo has Pokémon and Metroid as the bigger holiday titles and releases smaller games that are new or even ports/remasters for closer to Black Friday and Christmas.
Mario Kart has become an earth-shattering Nintendo IP which means they don't need a big to massive Switch 2 holiday title this year.
But for the next several years they need at least one big holiday title a year. Some candidates are 3D Mario, Animal Crossing, 3D Zelda, Smash, 2D Mario, or even Pokémon despite Nintendo not owning Pokémon entirely and not normally counting it as their holiday title.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima