The PS5 is running behind mostly because of shortages earlier in the system's life. The period of Q4 2021 to Q4 2022 was particularly rough. Sony started to make up for it in 2023, though, with huge restocks in Q1 that year and generally larger shipment quantities that year (22.7M to 19.5M) and last year (20.2M to 19.4M). Q1 of this year also saw the PS5 do better than what the PS4 did in Q1 2018, putting its LTD deficit at only 1.4M, a big reduction from the 5.7M deficit it was at by the end of 2022. If it can beat the 17.7M the PS4 shipped in 2018, it will narrow its deficit even further.
Another opportunity to close the gap would be later in life. While COVID did cause a big surge in PS4 sales in the spring of 2020, Sony clearly wasn't anticipating that level of demand and stock was mostly wiped out before the 2020 holidays, and the PS4 had negligible post-replacement legs. Given the semiconductor situation, Sony was either unwilling or unable to produce more PS4s in any substantial amount and instead did what they could do to meet demand for the PS5, though as mentioned they struggled to meet demand for that system early in its life.
The PS5 likely won't have this problem barring some global crisis in 2027-28 that royally screws the semiconductor market. If it's able to keep up with the PS4 until 2027 or at most have a small deficit, it could narrow that deficit and match the PS4 in lifetime sales. If it closes the gap and starts to pull ahead by the end of next year, it's entirely possible it could get up to the 120M mark, though I doubt it'll get any higher than that.
In any case, the PS5 should end somewhere very close to where the PS4 was, likely in the 115-120M range.
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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").
