| firebush03 said: You make a very strong point with that first sentence. So, in other words, Nintendo has already got plans to produce and ship 15mil NSW2 systems before 3-31-2026. If production needs to be ramped up to meet unexpectedly large demand, then they will try to adjust accordingly. Assuming pre-order data is being used to gauge consumer interest (i.e., to lead them to this 15mil figure), it is interesting, though, that 2.2mil JP pre-order requests would translate to 15mil F’26 WW…unless pre-order requests in EU/NA are not nearly as strong as we think? And Nintendo could absolutely have had more than 15mil ready for launch; they’ve been producing systems and expanding manufacturing plants for almost a year at this point, and have talked about for while their goal to combat shortages. Idk just seems like a weird situation. |
It isn't weird. While Switch 2 is the successor to one of the best-selling consoles of all-time, this doesn't guarantee that it will smash all records. It's also a more favorable position to be in when you have to revise your forecasts upwards instead of downwards. Pre-order data will certainly factor into Nintendo's forecast, but high initial demand doesn't linearily scale to demand throughout a fiscal year. And while Japanese pre-order numbers were higher than Nintendo expected, the same doesn't need to hold true for the rest of the world where the numbers might fall into exactly the range that Nintendo had anticipated; the thing is that Nintendo has never talked publicly about their expectations, so this can't be quantified.
What might make all of this weird is when you yourself are among the people who got carried away by the question this thread asked and got into the territory of unrealistic expectations, so what is perfectly normal business procedure suddenly appears to be weird. The next substantial updates to this thread's question will come in late October/early November when we can gauge Switch 2's sales momentum as well as the impact that Sony's PS5 price adjustments had. What is pretty much required is that Switch 2 overperforms and the PS5 underperforms, otherwise it's a foregone conclusion; but that has basically been the premise all along.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
