| RolStoppable said: This reminds me of eight years ago when Nintendo had forecasted 10m for the fiscal year ending March 2018 and most people treated that as the ceiling instead of the floor which it actually was. Why did Nintendo pick 15m for Switch 2? Because that's enough to make the point that they expect Switch 2 to sell faster than Switch 1 which shipped 14.86m during its first ten months. Obviously they can manufacture more than 15 million units and they will ship them, provided the demand is there. After all, Switch 1's forecast of 10m ended up being 15.05m during the aforementioned fiscal year. Whether or not the demand will be there is up in the air, but 15m is not the ceiling for what Nintendo can ship during this fiscal year. |
You make a very strong point with that first sentence. So, in other words, Nintendo has already got plans to produce and ship 15mil NSW2 systems before 3-31-2026. If production needs to be ramped up to meet unexpectedly large demand, then they will try to adjust accordingly.
Assuming pre-order data is being used to gauge consumer interest (i.e., to lead them to this 15mil figure), it is interesting, though, that 2.2mil JP pre-order requests would translate to 15mil F’26 WW…unless pre-order requests in EU/NA are not nearly as strong as we think? And Nintendo could absolutely have had more than 15mil ready for launch; they’ve been producing systems and expanding manufacturing plants for almost a year at this point, and have talked about for while their goal to combat shortages. Idk just seems like a weird situation.
