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Norion on 04 May 2025
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CheddarPlease said:
Norion said:

If that contradicts it then can you provide a source?

Based on customs data, US shipments were at 383k for January, and production has only continued to ramp since then, implying >2m in stock in the US by launch.
https://famiboards.com/threads/future-nintendo-hardware-technology-speculation-discussion-st-new-staff-post-please-read.55/page-4137#post-1656320
Install base has also estimated based on average GameStop stock that Gamestop has ~200k units for the initial round of pre-orders alone, and that's for one retailer

Yasuda Hideki, a senior analyst at Toyo Securities who is familiar with the game industry, points out, "I think they had prepared a total of 800,000 to 1 million units for the domestic market at official stores and mass retailers."
https://www.sankei.com/article/20250429-RBY2USEZPVNGNDMWGNK7ZKZA6A/

That would imply ~3-3.5m for the US and Japan alone in the first month. By contrast, the Switch sold about 1.5m combined in US and Japan during the same timeframe.

That post in the first link is only viewable by registered users so I can't say anything about that and that analyst you cite has recently apologized for sharing misinformation about FF16's sales so based on that I don't put too much stock into what he says unless his overall track record is really good.

CheddarPlease said:
Norion said:

If that's the previous record it's safe to say it's not selling that much in Japan at launch. Even just 900k would destroy the record.

Those PS2 figures do not count first-party sales. It sold 720k in its first weekend and >980k through its first 3 weeks. 

This doesn't change the overall point but as Rol said we'll get Nintendo's forecast in just a few days so at this point there's little purpose to debating this so lets just agree to disagree till then.

Last edited by Norion - on 04 May 2025