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Norion said:
CheddarPlease said:

Established pre-order figures and shipment data directly contradict your prediction. Based on the figures we have they should have at least 5m shipped out to stores in the first month at minimum

If that contradicts it then can you provide a source?

Based on customs data, US shipments were at 383k for January, and production has only continued to ramp since then, implying >2m in stock in the US by launch.
https://famiboards.com/threads/future-nintendo-hardware-technology-speculation-discussion-st-new-staff-post-please-read.55/page-4137#post-1656320
Install base has also estimated based on average GameStop stock that Gamestop has ~200k units for the initial round of pre-orders alone, and that's for one retailer

Yasuda Hideki, a senior analyst at Toyo Securities who is familiar with the game industry, points out, "I think they had prepared a total of 800,000 to 1 million units for the domestic market at official stores and mass retailers."
https://www.sankei.com/article/20250429-RBY2USEZPVNGNDMWGNK7ZKZA6A/

That would imply ~3-3.5m for the US and Japan alone in the first month. By contrast, the Switch sold about 1.5m combined in US and Japan during the same timeframe.




Last edited by CheddarPlease - on 04 May 2025