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Norion on 16 March 2025
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

I was referring to it consistently declining every week aside from the Wilds release one. When Switch 2 marketing ramps up starting in April the decline will naturally intensify and intensify further after it launches since as I've been saying most people aren't gonna bother buying the OLED model any more when for not much more they can get a Switch 2 and so far that model is the one that's notably down YoY despite it being basically flat by the end of January so the announcement is already having a notable impact.

It depends on what exactly you mean by cliff but a 40-50% decline this year is likely if the Switch 2 is only 2-3 months away since in that case the 2nd half of the year should be down massively with 2026 being over 70% down. The data is literally just expecting the Switch to have a normal post successor decline and you've said before that you don't expect that and instead expect gradual YoY declines so you should explain what's gonna cause the Switch to be so different.

Did you actually look at the data? YTD Switch sales have dropped less this year than the previous 3 years. The drop in Switch sales you are talking about is normal, except that it is even milder than usual this year.

You seem to think the data backs up your argument, when it says the opposite.

Yes and I clearly explained that I expect the drop to intensify as the year goes on cause I expect the Switch to act like a normal console when a really similar looking successor releases with backwards compatibility and overall for it to have a post successor decline somewhere between the DS and 3DS.

I see that you ignored me asking you to explain yourself again so once again what is your rationale for why the Switch is gonna act radically different to those two consoles? I've explained my position so if you're gonna question it then it's only fair if you explain yours and why you don't think Switch sales will be impacted much by the launch of the Switch 2.

Last edited by Norion - on 16 March 2025