The_Liquid_Laser said:
The recent sales trend is a moderate YoY decline. It's what the Switch has been doing for the past several years. In fact it's % drop is even milder this year that it has been in previous years. This idea that the Switch will hit a sales cliff this year doesn't come from the data at all.
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I was referring to it consistently declining every week aside from the Wilds release one. When Switch 2 marketing ramps up starting in April the decline will naturally intensify and intensify further after it launches since as I've been saying most people aren't gonna bother buying the OLED model any more when for not much more they can get a Switch 2 and so far that model is the one that's notably down YoY despite it being basically flat by the end of January so the announcement is already having a notable impact.
It depends on what exactly you mean by cliff but a 40-50% decline this year is likely if the Switch 2 is only 2-3 months away since in that case the 2nd half of the year should be down massively with 2026 being over 70% down. The data is literally just expecting the Switch to have a normal post successor decline and you've said before that you don't expect that and instead expect gradual YoY declines so you should explain what's gonna cause the Switch to be so different.
Last edited by Norion - on 14 March 2025
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