sc94597 said:
We are probably 2-10 years away from AI with real reasoning and creativity abilities in the sense that humans are capable of (and beyond.) That's about when we'll have Level 3/Level 4 agents that will be quite capable at out-of-distribution generalization. In that scenario, humans (until robotics catches up with ML, which might not be long) will be assisting AI agents, rather than vice-versa. AI agents will probably take the role of art directors. Quite honestly we should start worrying about how people are going to survive when the mass of human labor is outmoded. In a system designed for the bulk of the human population being laborers to survive, that system needs to be outmoded as well. |
Hmm, there is strong indication that current AI ran out of training data, because they already absorbed *everything* humankind has produced over the millenia. That's why OpenAI trained a Speech-to-text AI, so that they can access the content of videos. That doesn't mean there aren't some improvements possible, but we might well have hit another ceiling for the moment and need a new breakthrough, just as this paper was the breakthrough that lead to the current AI development.
But yes, we need to rethink how to organize labor. There are two scenarios, the one there everyone is poor except a few tech billionares and one there AI is put to produce wealth for everyone. And surprisingly these scenarios were already thought through about a decade ago, the story Manna by Marshall Brain. I highly recommend that read if you think about the AI future.