XtremeBG said:
Are those typos ? You used 2 times 2018, and 1 time 2019 when talking about end of production ? |
Yes, typos, I corrected them (It seems I like to dwell in the past
). Of course they should be 2028 and 2029 respectively.
| XtremeBG said: Although it seems to be do just fine for now, when we look at the regional sales for 2024 calendar year, it's not so pink. The US and Europe markets are down massively. Yes there was Zelda last year which surely boosted the sales but still .. For the US market from almost 6M in 2022, Switch was down to almost 5M last year and this year it's only 1.5M until October. Yes it will do maybe some 800k or 1M more with the holiday. Let's put it at 2.5M. It's still a big drop. And when the big drops are usually coming, it's sign that they will continue. If they do next year it will be something like 1M in the US, especially with the successor launching. For Europe it's almost the same, from 5M in 2022, to 4.5M in 2023, it's now at just 1.5M, and since the holidays there for the Switch are little bit weaker than those of the US, let's put it at 2.2-2.3M with the holiday sales. This really points to again sales of around 1M next year. Those two market are almost done with the system it seems. At least when you watch the pure numbers and the performance there compared to the last 2 years. Rest of the world for the year is also 1.5M so it isn't different picture there. The only market that keeps the Switch at decent pace worldwide, and it's doing fine is Japan. Which is dropping too but a lot less.. for now. The sales to this point are almost 144M. For the USA, we can put 1M for the rest of the year, 1M for the next and let's put 1M for the rest of it's life that is 3M in total, which adds up to 147M, for the Europe it's the same, so it's add up to 150M, for the rest of the world since it's around the same level for the year like the previous two, we can put the same 3M till end of life, it's 153M. That leaves around 7M more for JAPAN for the Switch to break the 160M mark. It's at 2.5M this year with October included. It can do another 500k there for 3M in total. So 6.5M left, which is still not a small number when you consider it will probably sell 2M at most there next year, and with Switch 2 being in full swing by 2026, it will be lucky if it can do 1M in 2026. So it can do another 3M in JAPAN for 2025 and 2026, then what ? 3.5M left .. even if some of the number's I wrote seems pessimistic for some, remember that when Switch 2 get announced, Switch 1 sales will drop more for sure, when Switch 2 get released it will drop another time for sure, and by 2026 it will drop even more. Also remember that there is a gap of around 3.5M, even if we add some more on the numbers I said, will they be enough to reach 160M? And do you know what happens then ? Switch finishing anywhere between 155M and 160M will result in debates on the forums everywhere who sold the most PS2 or Switch. And yes there will be points for both, but the debates will never end.. unless Sony come out and officially report the exact number of PS2 produced units. For which I see the only possible case of that happening will be if the number is actually bigger than that of the Switch, cuz if it's smaller there will be no point for them to go out and confirm PS2 doing less than the recent announced number from Nintendo for the Switch, when it's finally discontinued. |
As usual, you’re calculating based on sell-through numbers, which is completely fine (and, as you've noted before, VGChartz focuses on sell-through data for console sales). My issue, however, is that by using calendar years instead of fiscal years (which end in March), you're effectively shortchanging the Switch by about half a year to three quarters. According to your calculation, 5 million units will sell through in calendar year 2025, and 4 million in calendar year 2026 (including sales up to the end of production but excluding Japan after 2026).
In my opinion, this creates a skewed picture because the sales decline you’re referencing doesn’t align with the drop-off in shipped units calculated by fiscal year. Specifically, the “2025 decline effect” in FY 2026 doesn’t begin until April 2025 (rather than January 2025 as in the calendar year), and the “2026 decline effect” in FY 2027 doesn’t begin until April 2026 (instead of January 2026 as in the calendar year). Additionally, there will almost certainly still be units sold in both calendar year 2027 and fiscal year 2028 (which ends on March 31, 2028), and potentially beyond that.
If all of this is too confusing, here’s the simple version: Yes, I believe your numbers may be a bit too pessimistic. But that’s okay—we’ll see how it plays out.
