There’s no point in jumping to calculations just yet. It would be more prudent to wait for the final results from Q3, or better yet, Q4. By then, the number of Switch units shipped will provide a much clearer picture of whether the PS2’s record can realistically be surpassed.
Nevertheless, here are the key figures: As of March 31, 2024, 141.32 million Switch units had been shipped. Nintendo originally projected 13.5 million additional units for the fiscal year 2025 but has since lowered that forecast by one million to 12.5 million units. However, for my calculations, this adjustment is irrelevant, as I am already using a conservative estimate of 11 million for FY 2025. So even if Nintendo revises its estimate down further, my calculations remain valid:
- FY 2025: 141.32 million + 11 million = 152.32 million.
For FY 2026, I anticipate a substantial 50% decline in sales to around 5.5 million units (the release date of the Switch 2 does not significantly impact this estimate, even if it launches as early as April 1, 2025). This results in:
- FY 2026: 152.32 million + 5.5 million = 157.82 million.
That would leave only 2.18 million for the rest of the Switch's life to reach 160 million. Frankly, it seems very unlikely that these 2.18 million units would not be sold. The Switch 2, after all, would not reach its one-year anniversary until sometime in FY 2027, so production of the original Switch is almost certain to continue well into that year. Even in FY 2028, when the Switch 2 turns two, it’s highly improbable that Nintendo would stop production of its massively successful predecessor. Realistically, the earliest potential end to Switch production would be early in FY 2029 (April 2028).
Thus, with my calculations above, even the likelihood that the theoretical (but unrealistic) high point of 161.8 million PS2 units will be surpassed, even if production ends as early as April 2028, is quite high (though by a narrow margin).
Interestingly, if we compare unit sales in the “Other countries” category for the first half of FY 2025 to FY 2024, we see a sharp decline of 53.77% (1.06 million vs. 490,000). I believe this is directly tied to economic challenges in these regions. Historically, we know that a dip in purchasing power has relatively little impact on console sales in North America, Europe, and Japan, and sometimes even a positive one—as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, for the “Other countries” category, this dip has a much harsher impact, as consumers there already start with tighter budgets in normal economic conditions.
This situation, however, creates an opportunity: people in “Other countries” who intended to buy a Switch in 2024 (for themselves or as a gift for their children) but could not afford it may later purchase one when the economic situation improves. Additionally, with the Switch 2 likely to be out of budget for many consumers in “Other countries,” there is further potential for additional sales of the original Switch.
