2024 US Presidential Election

[Chrkeller]

the-pi-guy said:

Chrkeller said:

Bad data like Trump being under polled in 2016 and 2020?

Just because you don't like that data doesn't mean it is bad data. 

The data has it being tight, with an edge to Trump.

You shouldn't backhand jab the messenger.

And yes, professional betting firms aren't in the business of losing money and I'm certain they understand data better than the random folks in this thread.

You've misread me on like every single point. 

I gave no judgment on the actual data and I didn't give a backhand jab. (edit: I guess you were talking about the "actual data" bit. I wasn't quite talking about you.) 

I pretty much just said bad data is misleading and good data can be misinterpreted, and mistakes can happen on industrial scales. Do you disagree with those statements?

I think you excel at jabs with selected verbiage so you can the victim later.  But cool, I was literally named in your post but sure, it wasn't directed at me.  I totally believe you.

That aside, I think many here are dismissive of data for no reason other than they don't like the trends.  

The only wild card I see is early voting.  Not sure if polls are capturing that demographic.

I hope I'm, wrong but it doesn't look good.

Edit

And frankly I trust betting firms who specialize in odds more than polls.  60% is a strong position.  But again, hopefully they are wrong.  

Last edited by Chrkeller - on 22 October 2024