CourageTCD said:
archbrix said:
Yeah, the PS4 only sold about 7m more after March 31, 2020. So, I guess we can predict Switch to finish somewhere between that and the PS2's 28m it sold after year 8, haha. The main things that give me hope for Switch are, first, I think that Switch 2 is going to be pretty expensive; definitely more than any previous system from Nintendo and I do believe Switch will be well positioned as the budget option, especially if it does have an eventual price drop. I mean, even the PS4 had a $100 reduction in its lifetime. There comes a point where the loss of ~$50 on hardware would be offset by the extra game sales and subs it would provide. Despite Nintendo's obstinance, I still believe that a price reduction is in the Switch's future... probably after its successor arrives. And second, we do still have a new Pokemon Legends on the horizon following this fiscal and it would not surprise me at all if Pokemon Gen 10 (assuming it arrives in 2025) is a straight-up Switch 1 game and not even a cross-gen release. Black & White released on the DS in NA the same month as the 3DS launched, for example. Marios and Zeldas have moved on for sure but that massive 150m+ userbase will be difficult to ignore for this type of game. If Switch still had a bit more to go I'd be more skeptical but I don't think 10m after March 31st will be too difficult. |
I woudn't count on a new main Pokémon game for the Switch 1. Nintendo has never released a three main generation of Pokémon games in the same console and we've already had Sword/Shield and Scarlet/Violet, just like the DS had Diamond/Pearl and Black/White (and the 3DS had X/Y and Sun/Moon). Probably, the next next pair of games that kicks the 10th generation will be exclusive for the Switch 2.
Another thing that called my attention is that you mentioned the 7M the PS4 had after the release of the PS5. If Nintendo really manages to achieve its fiscal year goal and have 154M Switch sold by March 2025, 7M would more than enough to pass the 160M, making the Switch have 161M units sold |
Yeah, I thought about that after I posted and you're right. I doubt Pokemon Gen 10 will release in 2025 at all but when it does, I agree, it will be on the next system.
I don't think that Nintendo will reach its target of 13.5m but I do think that the system will be over 150m by the end of March (my guess is ~152m). Either way, I think 160m is in the Switch's future.
