The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[CourageTCD]

archbrix said:

Farsala said:

PS2 was in a very different time. It launched late in many countries, those countries hit their peaks later too.

3DS had no direct successor, Switch was only an indirect successor.

Another example you could give is the PS4. It is a modern console like the 3DS, but it also had a direct successor, like the Switch will have. The PS4 also sold very well, much like the Switch. But the legs post successor launch were virtually nonexistent.

Basically I am saying Switch will have its own situation and won't be like any other console. After all, we are in unprecedented territory.

Yeah, the PS4 only sold about 7m more after March 31, 2020.  So, I guess we can predict Switch to finish somewhere between that and the PS2's 28m it sold after year 8, haha.

The main things that give me hope for Switch are, first, I think that Switch 2 is going to be pretty expensive; definitely more than any previous system from Nintendo and I do believe Switch will be well positioned as the budget option, especially if it does have an eventual price drop.  I mean, even the PS4 had a $100 reduction in its lifetime.  There comes a point where the loss of ~$50 on hardware would be offset by the extra game sales and subs it would provide.  Despite Nintendo's obstinance, I still believe that a price reduction is in the Switch's future... probably after its successor arrives.

And second, we do still have a new Pokemon Legends on the horizon following this fiscal and it would not surprise me at all if Pokemon Gen 10 (assuming it arrives in 2025) is a straight-up Switch 1 game and not even a cross-gen release.  Black & White released on the DS in NA the same month as the 3DS launched, for example.  Marios and Zeldas have moved on for sure but that massive 150m+ userbase will be difficult to ignore for this type of game. 

If Switch still had a bit more to go I'd be more skeptical but I don't think 10m after March 31st will be too difficult.

I woudn't count on a new main Pokémon game for the Switch 1. Nintendo has never released a three main generation of Pokémon games in the same console and we've already had Sword/Shield and Scarlet/Violet, just like the DS had Diamond/Pearl and Black/White (and the 3DS had X/Y and Sun/Moon). Probably, the next next pair of games that kicks the 10th generation will be exclusive for the Switch 2.

Another thing that called my attention is that you mentioned the 7M the PS4 had after the release of the PS5. If Nintendo really manages to achieve its fiscal year goal and have 154M Switch sold by March 2025, 7M would more than enough to pass the 160M, making the Switch have 161M units sold