The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[archbrix]

Farsala said:

archbrix said:

I don't think the Switch will have the twilight years of the Playstation 2, but it doesn't need them at this point to surpass it. Similarly, we need to remember that massively successful systems that have so much to offer new consumers don't just stop selling overnight, even if the big numbers are over. Look at the shipments of Playstation 2 vs the Switch:

At the end of year 8, the PS2 was coming off of a 13.7m year, and while I think Nintendo will miss its 13.5m projection for the equivalent year, the Switch will still be over 150m shipped by the end of March 2025, whereas the PS2 was at 131.6m aligned. But the PS2 remained incredibly steady for the next 3 years, amounting to over 21m more shipped during that time alone. So while I don't think that Switch shipments will remain that high for that long, another 10m for a system that is likely to stick around for a while as a cheaper alternative is quite doable. Even the 3DS shipped over 9m after the Switch released.

Looking pretty likely to me.

PS2 was in a very different time. It launched late in many countries, those countries hit their peaks later too.

3DS had no direct successor, Switch was only an indirect successor.

Another example you could give is the PS4. It is a modern console like the 3DS, but it also had a direct successor, like the Switch will have. The PS4 also sold very well, much like the Switch. But the legs post successor launch were virtually nonexistent.

Basically I am saying Switch will have its own situation and won't be like any other console. After all, we are in unprecedented territory.

Yeah, the PS4 only sold about 7m more after March 31, 2020.  So, I guess we can predict Switch to finish somewhere between that and the PS2's 28m it sold after year 8, haha.

The main things that give me hope for Switch are, first, I think that Switch 2 is going to be pretty expensive; definitely more than any previous system from Nintendo and I do believe Switch will be well positioned as the budget option, especially if it does have an eventual price drop.  I mean, even the PS4 had a $100 reduction in its lifetime.  There comes a point where the loss of ~$50 on hardware would be offset by the extra game sales and subs it would provide.  Despite Nintendo's obstinance, I still believe that a price reduction is in the Switch's future... probably after its successor arrives.

And second, we do still have a new Pokemon Legends on the horizon following this fiscal and it would not surprise me at all if Pokemon Gen 10 (assuming it arrives in 2025) is a straight-up Switch 1 game and not even a cross-gen release.  Black & White released on the DS in NA the same month as the 3DS launched, for example.  Marios and Zeldas have moved on for sure but that massive 150m+ userbase will be difficult to ignore for this type of game. 

If Switch still had a bit more to go I'd be more skeptical but I don't think 10m after March 31st will be too difficult.