Nintendo Quarterly Sales Update to 30th June: Switch at 143.42m shipped

[Mar1217]

Norion said:

I was expecting 1.8-2m Switch shipments so this is a pretty decent start to the fiscal year. It'll have to remain basically completely flat for the other three quarters to reach 13.5m which I really don't see happening but even just 10-11m would still be a great result for its age. The software forecast is also looking tough to reach since there isn't much room left for declines with that already being down 22m but the declines in the other quarters shouldn't be anywhere near as bad so if they miss it it shouldn't be by that much.

Something noteworthy about the software is how how much the digital ratio has increased YoY and how close it's getting to two thirds. It's gonna start at about that level with the Switch 2 or reach it quickly so this was the console where digital for Nintendo went from a low percentage to the majority and that'll be the console for them where it starts fully taking over and by the end of it physical will not have much relevance left which is gonna make things like the software sales from Famitsu increasingly become less useful.

Also this is a pretty disappointing start for the TTYD remake with its first quarter sales being a lot lower than Origami King and the Super Mario RPG remake. With how quickly these games fall off it might only barely reach 2m which isn't exactly a great result for pushing the series to return to its roots. Perhaps three Mario RPG's releasing in a year span is gonna hurt the latter two due to sales being cannibalized.

For the digital ratio, you gotta take into account that this is the proportional rate for all sold software anyway and the lack of big releases that would usually favor the physical market have been absent this quarter, therefore not representive of the usual growth.

The presence of bigger software pieces during Q3 will probably even this out.