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curl-6 said:

Yeah the next Xbox if indeed one makes it to market will face a massively uphill battle and will be at real risk of becoming the next Wii U/Dreamcast.

There's no more room for mistakes; they will need to come out swinging with a strong software lineup and keep the hits coming, or it's curtains.

Cutting the cord on a home console would seem wise if the fifth Xbox does similar numbers (or especially worse) than the Xbox Series X/S. 

However, Microsoft has nearly endless coffers. They can lose billions on Xbox and still want to keep pumping out hardware. 

Unless the next system sells 50 million units (or especially 60 million and up), I see Microsoft going third-party with most software and licensing out certain SKUs of PCs with the Xbox branding, an included Xbox controller, and a subscription to Game Pass in the box. 

Someone can counter-argue with me if they want, but I feel like Xbox since 2017 has had pretty much the opposite situation Nintendo has since 2017 with Switch.

Xbox One X, Xbox Series S, and Xbox Series X are all pretty state of the art hardware for their goals. Series S not as much, but it is compact and meant to be more entry-level. However, Xbox has been struggling with software since around that time, if not before. The Microsoft-published games and third-party console exclusives are not drawing people in like they should, and most would rather play multiplats on PlayStation and PC. Xbox is too focused on hardware and subscriptions, and not enough on software. 

Nintendo has weak hardware. Docked mode has been weak on Switch since Day 1, and handheld mode has been weak since around 2020-2021. 

However, Nintendo software sells like hotcakes. A lot of Nintendo titles are selling disproportionately well on Switch even when compared to DS and Wii. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima