Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

[Shadow1980]

RolStoppable said:

Switch is already ahead of the DS in Japan. There's really no point in looking at sell-through numbers when we have access to the more accurate shipped numbers. Eventually every shipped unit will be a sold through unit.

Here are the figures for Nintendo's final breakdown of DS shipments by region, totaling to 153.99m. The DS shipped a miniscule amount after this final breakdown, bringing its final lifetime figure to 154.02m. Switch LTD shipments are as of December 31st 2023, totaling 139.36m.

Japan: DS 32.99m vs. Switch 33.34m
Americas: DS 59.93m vs. Switch 53.85m
Other: DS 61.07m vs. Switch 52.18m

The fact that both Paper Mario and Luigi's Mansion 2 get released in the first half of 2024 (earlier than pretty much everyone expected) points in the direction of Nintendo having plenty of other first party games left to be released on Switch. Plus one big title (Pokémon Legends) is already confirmed for 2025. We have these facts, but you'd rather form your expectations based on vague assumptions. I guess you are entitled to do that, but it's definitely not the best analytical approach.

Switch doesn't need to beat the DS in the USA when it can beat the DS in the whole of America (only ~6m to go, not that big of a challenge). Nintendo's better distribution by country of today can have certainly impacted the amount of units that were sold in the USA and then exported to another American country afterwards. In a similar way, better worldwide availability of Switch than what the DS had will allow Switch to make up for lower lifetime sales in Europe.

Given the currently available facts, I'd put the chance of Switch passing the DS at a full 100% and passing the PS2 at 75%. Most of the doubt regarding the PS2 comes from the lack of a final lifetime figure on Sony's behalf, so read these 75% as the probability that it will be widely acknowledged that Switch beat the PS2.

Shipped ≠ sold, and I think we all know that. Obviously even if the Switch didn't have any more units shipped to Japan, unit sales will still eventually exceed those of the DS since there's enough supply left for it to do so. Doesn't change the fact that the Switch hasn't passed the DS in sales. Let's not split hairs on this, okay?

In any case, do you really expect the Paper Mario 2 and Luigi's Mansion 2 remakes to move a ton of hardware when their original versions and other entries in their respective series didn't? I know there's a lot of people here that have a very loose definition of "system-seller." I mean, I suppose even some obscure niche title that only sold 100k copies could've been the one to get a few random people to buy a system. But not every semi-noteworthy title actually causes noticeable upticks in hardware sales (there's been at least a couple of occasions where I was told some game would be a major system-seller only for it to come and go with no bumps to hardware sales). The fact of the matter is that it's only a handful of big games that have any major impact on hardware, and the effect of any single title is always relatively short-lived (usu. a month or two at most, many only a single week). Also, Nintendo releasing several smaller titles in a system's last year isn't anything new. Obviously they're not going to leave these last 12 months before the Switch 2 releases (assuming a March 2025 release date) fully bereft of first-party software for the Switch, but what the Switch is getting won't prevent or even slow down continued declines in sales.

By far the biggest thing the Switch still has left, the only thing that can move the needle on hardware, is the upcoming Pokemon Legends game, but that's not due out until next year. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a cross-gen title, and even if it's not, the Switch 2 will almost certainly be backwards compatible (which could diminish the game's impact on Switch 1 hardware), and most people that bought a Switch to play Pokemon have one already (these late-life Pokemon games always have greatly diminished impacts compared to earlier titles on a given system). We might see a solid but not massive bump lasting a couple of weeks, but that's it, and that bump will be to sales noticeably lower than current sales. That one game by itself won't be the thing that pushes the Switch ahead of the DS.

As for the U.S. vs. the rest of the "Americas" region, keep in mind that the U.S. has consistently been at least 85-90% of Nintendo hardware sales in the region since Nintendo has been releasing systems. Canada represents most of the rest, and Switch sales in Canada have consistently been about one-tenth of U.S. sales. The Switch will probably at best sell 3.5M this year in the U.S., putting it at a bit over 48M lifetime, still over 5M short of the DS's lifetime total. If it only sells 3.5M this year, then I would argue it has zero chance of selling another 5M+ after it's replaced. Unless Latin America & the Caribbean can somehow match or exceed U.S.+Canada sales from here on out, then it's going to be hard for regional sales to match or exceed those of the DS. Even if it does beat the DS for the whole region, it won't be by much, and not enough to make up for the massive deficit in Europe, even if you combine the Americas with the Switch's lead in Japan. As I said, the Switch's ability to beat the DS worldwide is going to depend entirely on markets outside the Americas, Europe, and Japan making up for the net deficit from the main three markets.

This is the last full calendar year the Switch has before being replaced. A large majority of the rest of its lifetime sales will come in the next 12 months assuming a March 2025 release date for the Switch 2, so whatever milestones it can still pass will depend on how well it does this year. Given Nintendo's track record over the past 25 years, I am not convinced they will give the Switch the support it needs for it to not fall off of a cliff once the Switch 2 is released. If the Switch does manage to beat the DS worldwide, it probably won't be by much, and not until well after the Switch 2 releases.