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Soundwave said:

I don't think 3D Mario + Metroid is enough to carry the Switch 2.

Mario Kart is bigger than all of those, Mario Kart is frankly the biggest Nintendo franchise by a mile dwarfing any Mario platformer at this point. It should be priority no.1 to have out for day 1 on Switch 2 if Nintendo truly wants a successful early product cycle for the Switch 2 which is comparable to the Switch 1.

Mario 3D alone ain't gonna do it and Metroid Prime is small potatoes (sorry Metroid fans) in the wide appeal sector.

Mario Kart you will want for NSO subscriptions as well. It just makes sense to have it day 1 and then have it grow with more and more tracks as time goes on and to lock people in to have to continually be subscribed to NSO to get new tracks.

There is going to be a Donkey Kong game of some sort to coincide with theme park launch too, that's definitely going to happen. 

A 3D Mario only ever launched with two Nintendo platforms, and the second time it was a remake.

3D Mario games have been absent from Nintendo launches not because they're not big but because they take some time.

Nintendo might have a new Mario Kart ready by launch but it's hardly necessary and they need to focus on the experience first and making it to launch of Switch 2 second. 

3D Mario and Metroid Prime 4 (even with no other first-party titles) would probably already be better than just about any first-party launch line-up in Nintendo history. Switch had BOTW (a cross-gen game, but a massive one) and 1-2 Switch (a middling game to most). 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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