The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Wman1996]

kilik said:

How many units do we expect it to sell after Switch 2 launch? I think somewhere between 10 and 15 million units.

Depends on a few scenarios and how many Switch consoles Nintendo manufactures.

1. Switch 2 is either too expensive, lacking games, or an unappealing concept. So, pretty much some version of the Wii U situation (but almost no chance it's that severe). In this scenario, customers will still see a lot of value in Switch (even if it too is partly hurt in branding). We're talking about anywhere between 12-25 million units if Switch stays the same price or gets a more modest price cut. Aggressive price cuts in this scenario would likely lead to about 22-32 million units sold post-Switch 2 launch.

2. Switch 2 is as successful as Wii right out the gate. Nintendo will still make and sell some Switch consoles but will greatly reduce manufacturing to focus on Switch 2. We're looking at about 4-10 million units in this situation. 

3. Switch 2 is successful or really successful and Nintendo still wants to milk Switch for as long as they can. We're looking at about 9-15 million units in this situation. 

Scenario 2 is the most likely, followed by 3, then 1. 

I've been wrong about Switch and Nintendo many times. But there has to be some saturation point for Switch. If Switch is already at 150 million units or higher by time Switch 2 is out, I don't see a reasonable ceiling for Switch above 175 million. And that's a big ask as well. And 200 million or above is highly improbable. Consumers would have to really want Switch in lieu of Switch 2 and Nintendo would have to make them super cheap.