Back in 2022 I said March 2024, and pre-COVID I would've said March 2023.
I'm saying November 2024 as the most likely. April-August 2024 has a small chance, September-October 2024 or March 2025 have a decent shot but less than November 2024.
I still see people arguing that Nintendo should wait until after March 2025 to release a Switch successor which is baffling to me. I suppose those same people think Nintendo will abandon Switch pretty quickly after Switch 2 launches but that is not a given. While 3DS was a very different way to play than Switch, it got good support in 2017 and even some in 2018-2019. Just because Switch 2 is 90% or more likely to be backwards compatible doesn't mean Nintendo should abandon Switch. DS may have been a third pillar at first, but it did play GBA games. GBA still got significant support in 2005 and 2006.
It doesn't seem like a smart idea to coast off of Switch as the only hardware until after FY 24-25. It seems the better idea is to launch a successor that many have waited for and have Switch as a backup in the unlikely event Switch 2 struggles.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)
PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima
