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zeldaring on 22 June 2023
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Soundwave said:

With ToTK and Mario Wonder ... Nintendo's late gen obligations to the Switch are largely complete. Those two games should carry the Switch for several years going forward.

The next 3D Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros., Splatoon, Xenoblade, mainline Luigi's Mansion really are all probably reserved for Switch 2, you can't even really do a 3D Mario for 2024 for Switch because it would create a huge problem for the Switch 2 where it can't then get a 3D Mario until like when? 2026? 2027 more realistically? With no new Zelda early in the product cycle for Switch 2, that's just putting that system at such a disadvantage that it's not worth even contemplating.

I think they'll maybe do some games cross-gen, like maybe another Pokemon, maybe a Donkey Kong game, a Kirby game, Metroid Prime 4 I could see being cross-gen ... so there's that at least.

But I think from 2024 onwards all major software development is either Switch 2-only or cross-gen. Smaller scale things like a F-Zero GX Remaster, Paper Mario: TTYD Remake maybe are Switch-only, but I think after 2023, the Switch only projects are going to start to thin out.

I think everything will be cross-gen for 2 years. the Switch is software sells are still really strong for switch and install base is huge.