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Soundwave said:

The one point I would say is in favor of this leaker's posts is Nintendo seems for no reason to be very secretive about games post-July this year for what I can tell is no real good reason.

Like last year this time they had already revealed the big fall title (Pokemon Violet & Scarlett was unveiled in Februray for a November launch, we had also already seen footage of Bayonetta 3 and Splatoon 3 and Xenoblade 3, all 2nd half 2022 titles).

So why the big secrecy over anything post-July 2022 this year? Doesn't make a whole lot of sense it feels like.

It could be that they have a new Mario for fall 2023 but they don't want to reveal it before the movie and just like the current evergreen Mario platformers sell through the fall, but that's about all I can come up with. 

That could be, but perhaps the secrecy is the lack of upcoming first-party games this year. If Nintendo has a new system coming out in 2024 (we don't know if they do), why would they need to have a clearly communicated second half of 2023 way in advance?

Switch is the third best-selling platform of all-time, and Tears of the Kingdom launches in May. Add that to the huge library of Switch games already available and they can be coy. 

I would all but guarantee that the holiday title or (titles) this year will be more lowkey. 

2017: Super Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade Chronicles 2

2018: Pokemon Let's Go, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

2019: Luigi's Mansion 3, Pokemon Sword and Shield

2020: Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity

2021: Pokemon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl

2022: Pokemon Scarlet and Violet

Even in that lineup, you have at least one year that was more minor (2020). In all fairness, COVID-19 affected things, I'm sure. 

All that to say, there's not much of a need for a big holiday title anymore in the Switch's life. Tears of the Kingdom will sell like crazy at launch and the holiday season. I don't think we'll already get Black and White remakes this holiday, but it's possible. 

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima