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anonymunchy on 24 February 2023
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SKMBlake said:
anonymunchy said:

Consoles stop selling because support drops and newer hardware is released. Keep pumping out games and sales will remain comfortably profitable for longer than we might assume.

Well PS4 got a handful of awesome games in 2020 (Last of Us Part II, FF7 Remake, Ghost of Tsushima, Persona 5 Royal, Dreams, Fall Guys to name a few) but it sales were lackluster (it shipped 5 million in 2020 in total if I recall correctly).

So even with 8 1st party/exclusives the Switch is releasing this year (that we are aware of), including 2 highly praised games (Metroid Prime and Zelda TikTok), it should be ending the year with 15 million units sold at best (which would make the total at 137 million, which is still very impressive).

The Playstation 5 had a big reveal event in June 2020, was already known about before that time and released in November of that year. They had moved on already. I can agree with the 15 million for this year, the point is that there's no guarantee it is going to keep dropping by a significant amount every year if they keep supporting it and not announce a new console.

Norion said:
anonymunchy said:

I really don't see them releasing a new console in 2024. This might be the impression you get when looking online, but that's a small bubble, sales indicate that it is still a console in high demand, just no longer in insanely high demand. Selling around 20 million in a year is extremely good, yet a lot of people (content creators) are saying that the switch is finished and needs to be replaced.

If Nintendo were to release Super Mario Movie: The Game, Luigi's Ghost Town, Pokémon World, Donkey Kong 3D, F-Zero XXX, Dreamcast/GameCube/DS/2DS NSO apps, Xbox Live service, Animal Crossing: Planets, Mario Galaxy 3, New IP's (survival, roguelite, fps, crafting, battle royal), Xenoblade X-X2, New Nintendo Selects line, Mario Party DLC, Mario RPG 2, OOT/Majora remaster, 2D Mario, Astral Chain 2, Pokémon Legends 2, Mario Maker 3, Oracle/Ages remake, Switch Pro - decrease in price of previous models, Metroid Chozo Spin-off, Wario Land 5, Waluigi's Empire, Bowser's Adventure, on top of Tears of the Kingdom, Pikmin 4, Prime 2-3-4, Wind Waker HD, Twilight Princess HD, Professor Layton, Baten Kaitos I-II, Advance Wars Reboot, Mario Kart DLC and whatever else they are realistically releasing this year and next, would we honestly think sales would drop another 5 million both years, bringing it down to 10 million in 2024? I doubt that.
It's an unrealistic list of games, sure, bit only to point out that saturation only happens when the console loses support, new games bring in new people.

The thing is it won't be around 20 million this year, it'll be around 15 million and drop even more next year. A lineup that strong would soften the drop a lot sure but as you said it's unrealistic so a realistic lineup should see it drop to 10 million next year. Nintendo's investors would get very unhappy if they don't release it next year so at this point 2025 will only happen if they really need some extra time to get games ready for the successor.

The ''around 20 million'' was for the past year, as it hits close to 19 million if I'm not mistaken.

That part of the comment was directed at a saturation comment, pointing out that saturation will not occur if support remains as high as it was in 2017. Saturation occurs when support for a console is finished, no longer anything new to entice new players, hence eventually everyone who wants one will have bought one, ignoring yearly population growth. New software will keep enticing new players. Spread out my list over 3 years and it comes down to about 1 big game every month, which is really not unrealistic for a console when fully supported. Besides the obvious wishful thinking with a lot of these titles, it's only unrealistic because we don't expect Nintendo to continue providing such massive support.

Your last comment is based on absolutely nothing though. Why on earth would investors not be happy if they don't release a new console in 2024? They only care about profit, so as long as Nintendo is making profit, they will be happy. Just because some content creators or the absolutely tiny online community are hunkering for a new more powerful console, doesn't mean the general public is. They are clearly showing interest in the current console, as Nintendo has also pointed out with a high engagement over the past months.