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Norion on 24 February 2023
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anonymunchy said:

I really don't see them releasing a new console in 2024. This might be the impression you get when looking online, but that's a small bubble, sales indicate that it is still a console in high demand, just no longer in insanely high demand. Selling around 20 million in a year is extremely good, yet a lot of people (content creators) are saying that the switch is finished and needs to be replaced.

If Nintendo were to release Super Mario Movie: The Game, Luigi's Ghost Town, Pokémon World, Donkey Kong 3D, F-Zero XXX, Dreamcast/GameCube/DS/2DS NSO apps, Xbox Live service, Animal Crossing: Planets, Mario Galaxy 3, New IP's (survival, roguelite, fps, crafting, battle royal), Xenoblade X-X2, New Nintendo Selects line, Mario Party DLC, Mario RPG 2, OOT/Majora remaster, 2D Mario, Astral Chain 2, Pokémon Legends 2, Mario Maker 3, Oracle/Ages remake, Switch Pro - decrease in price of previous models, Metroid Chozo Spin-off, Wario Land 5, Waluigi's Empire, Bowser's Adventure, on top of Tears of the Kingdom, Pikmin 4, Prime 2-3-4, Wind Waker HD, Twilight Princess HD, Professor Layton, Baten Kaitos I-II, Advance Wars Reboot, Mario Kart DLC and whatever else they are realistically releasing this year and next, would we honestly think sales would drop another 5 million both years, bringing it down to 10 million in 2024? I doubt that.
It's an unrealistic list of games, sure, bit only to point out that saturation only happens when the console loses support, new games bring in new people.

The thing is it won't be around 20 million this year, it'll be around 15 million and drop even more next year. A lineup that strong would soften the drop a lot sure but as you said it's unrealistic so a realistic lineup should see it drop to 10 million next year. Nintendo's investors would get very unhappy if they don't release it next year so at this point 2025 will only happen if they really need some extra time to get games ready for the successor.