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It's amazing how sales numbers are perceived so differently between Nintendo and Sony. When Nintendo has a 19 million year, it's time to hit the panic button and call it quits on the Switch business; a successor should launch sooner rather than later. When Sony hit 19m during the PS4's fifth full calendar year (2018), there was nobody to suggest that the PS5 should launch in late 2019 at the latest.

People talk about declining profitability for Switch without bothering to look into the causes. Revenue is down by 2% in the comparable nine-month-period, profit is down 13%. What happened is that material costs have gone up (components for Switch hardware) as well as overseas operating expenses for personnel and the like. These things are not factors that Nintendo could control, they were caused by COVID-19 measures of China and the rampant inflation following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. New hardware isn't going to solve these problems, because the aspects of the Switch business that Nintendo can control are largely not at fault for declining profitability.

In terms of Switch revisions, there are two major options:

1. A cost-cutting SKU, such as a TV-only Switch. Similar to Switch Lite in its approach, so features being removed in order to address the lower needs that potential customers may have. This would be a way for Nintendo to increase their average profit per hardware unit sold when looking at the whole Switch family.

2. A Switch Pro, boosting framerates and resolutions of both existing and upcoming games. Basically the sole reason why anyone argues that it's too late for a Switch Pro is an assumed too small power leap for an imminent Switch successor, but these people willfully ignore Nintendo's sales history. When has a leap in power in and of itself ever resulted in big sales for Nintendo? Not a single time. On the home console side, every generational leap in processing power has resulted in declining sales (SNES after NES, N64 after SNES, GC after N64, Wii U after Wii) while on the two occasions that had no such leap (Wii after GC, Switch after Wii U) Nintendo's sales increased tremendously. On the handheld side, nobody was ever wowed by the graphics of these small machines in the first place. That's why a Switch Pro wouldn't interfere with any next gen plans. Such an SKU would be merely an additional option for customers.

On the software side, we are six years in and there's still no Player's Choice/Nintendo Selects equivalent.

That's why it annoys me so much when people talk about the Switch business as if Nintendo had already exhausted all their options when all they've done so far is ride the high-profitability-train because all things Switch sold so well that Nintendo could afford to do so without making any efforts.

Stock price doesn't matter. I hope we aren't going to sit here and pretend that all investors now know how the business works. Nevermind that 8-10 years ago when the stock price was only a fraction of what it is now, Nintendo simply ignored all the voices that told them what to do, such as moving the Virtual Console to smartphones. There's no good reason to believe that Nintendo's board of directors will be fazed after a fiscal year with a projected operating profit of 480 billion yen.

Lastly, there's a Nintendo Direct today. Not the most interesting one of the year, because we certainly won't get to learn the full extent of 2023's lineup, but interesting nonetheless. Unlike other console manufacturers, the lion share of Nintendo's profit comes from selling games. The current fiscal year, despite the first yearly decline in software shipments, will still finish comfortably ahead of Switch's third full fiscal year.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.