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super_etecoon on 11 January 2023
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SKMBlake said:
super_etecoon said:

While the WiiU was a Wii, everyone already had a Wii, got bored with it and moved on. Even that aspect of it was failed. You couldn’t even use it as a Wii without booting up an emulator. The WiiU, while backwards compatible with the Wii, was a much different experience. I’m not sure if you don’t have experience with it (I’m pretty sure you do) but it was more of a single player gimmick. It’s even in the name U. If you could have used more than one gamepad at a time it may have been different. 

Well with a backward compatible Switch which will probably end its life cycle at more than 140 million units sold, everybody would have a Switch and, by using the same logic, be bored with it at some point. So having a successor doing the same thing wouldn't necessarily garantee success, as for the Wii U and the 3DS.

Yes, the Wii U had its gamepad gimmick, but overall it was still based on the experience started with the Wii at its core, and was kind of the fusion of the Game Cube ("gamer" oriented games) and the Wii (more "casual" oriented games). And still failed.

And same with the 3DS, same concept, a totally optional gimmick, but sales divided by 2.

You’re not wrong suggesting that sales aren’t guaranteed. I do believe the difference between the Switch in this case and the Wii before it is that the core experience of the Switch is much more aligned with a traditional experience and not tied to a fad. The Switch hasn’t succeeded because it makes a cool clicking sound when it goes in the dock and projects the image in the tv. It has succeeded because the software output has been robust, both from Nintendo as well as third parties. 

Will 140 million folks opt to upgrade to a Switch 2? That is highly doubtful. Will only 13 million? I think that is even more doubtful. 

What I think is funny is how these debates must play out in Nintendo meetings. There’s a lot of fuel for fear if you’re Nintendo. They just can’t ever seem to build on their momentum. On the other hand they have proven time and again that even if they fall in catastrophic fashion they have an impeccable ability to get back up even stronger.