The recent rumor that Nintendo has discarded a Switch Pro makes it all the more likely that Nintendo will try to prolong this generation as much as possible, because the supposed insiders have kept getting it wrong for so long already. The PS6 isn't launching anytime soon, so there's no good reason for Nintendo to jumpstart the next generation, unlike with the 3DS where there was at least some logic to rushing it out in order to get ahead of Sony's Vita. That was when Nintendo prematurely replaced the DS and I hope everyone remembers how that turned out.
The Q1 2024 option leads in the poll, but that's first and foremost because the people who in the past had predicted a 2022 launch and then later a 2023 launch had to push their dates back. Such a date doesn't make much sense for two reasons though:
1. Console manufacturers target the holidays for console launches, so Q1 2024 effectively means to expect a delayed launch that was originally planned to happen in Q4 2023.
2. Nintendo is wary of the next transition period, but launching a new console in Q1 2024 would go hand in hand with a lack of time for their top development teams to finish enough games for the console's first year.
There's also the fact that regardless of any official announcement by a console manufacturer, the rumor mill picks up speed more than a year before the eventual launch of a console. For example, it was crystal clear in the first half of 2019 already that both Sony and Microsoft were targeting holiday 2020 launches. But for this Switch successor, we've heard absolutely nothing yet and that's despite an avalanche of Switch Pro rumblings that were for a revision that ultimately didn't happen. The interest in a more powerful Switch - whether that is a revision or a successor - is absolutely there, but we haven't even had the tiniest of tidbit regarding a successor yet.
If Nintendo has no plans to launch another Switch revision, then holiday 2024 becomes realistic for the Switch successor. But if Nintendo does launch another revision, they can certainly hold out until holiday 2025 and have a well prepared launch for the Switch successor. In the current times of chip shortages, high inflation and other uncertainties outside of Nintendo's control, I am strongly leaning towards a prolonged generation, so I voted Q4 2025 in the poll. Switch has that much life left in the tank, so it would be foolish to pass on this opportunity and launch during unstable times.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
