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smroadkill15 on 10 October 2022
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SKMBlake said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

CosmicSex said:

Honestly it's gonna top out at 55 million and may even get up to around 60 million.

Honest question: Can you explain me why do you think XS will just barely outsell XBO? Right now it's looking like it's selling quite a bit better than it's predecessor, so I want to understand where you're coming from with your prediction. Do you think sales will falter, a new console replacing the Series X/S early on cutting it's legs, or why do you think sales will be so low?

Well there is no appetite for Xbox console, MS had the clever idea of putting 2 different machines on the same time on the market, having the lackluster cheaper one more available than the most interesting one, while the direct competitor sells everything it produces in seconds after almost 2 years.

And with Microsoft keep pushing Game Pass subscriptions without even the need to own an Xbox (I think by the end of the generation, GP streaming will be as widely available as Netflix, on Smart tvs, Shield/Roku/Appletv type boxes) and  even selling 1 year of GP Ultimate subscription with an Xbox controller.

So comparison charts aren’t really a good indication for Xbox, as if you compare Xbox One and PS3 sales, I’m pretty sure the first one is above the second one, but we know how it ends.

So yeah, after the big GP/Series momentum Xbox had at lauch, the lack of new games (I believe there was absolutely no big 1st party game on Xbox this year so far) and the meh availability of the Series S will remind people of MS being MS as always.

And I know the « next year will be awesome » theory, I read about it back in 2014, and everybody was saying Xbox was going to be very big in 2022, but here we are.

I mean I believe they never had a year above 10 million units, and after 6+ years, you can hardly go above 60 million if you end up selling 7-8 million per year.

There is no appetite for Xbox consoles huh? News to me. 

And? Xbox Game Pass subs account for the primary number of subscribers. Game Pass is pushing Xbox sales, not the other way around. Cloud gaming still has a way to go before it has mass appeal. 

Comparision charts 1+ year in is a good indicator. For launch numbers, clearly not. It was pretty early on we could tell the Xbone sales were going struggle, especially after a year. It was frontloaded to start but dropped significantly early on. While Series X|S are consistently 150-170K or more weekly, and sales are higher this year than last year. Pretty easy to tell it's going to sell quite a bit more than the Xbone. Easily over 60M and probably 70M+. 

So far that reminder hasn't clicked in, I guess. Sales are higher year over year. It also helps knowing Xbox 1st party is going to be significantly stronger going forward. No way to downplay it, this isn't 2014 Xbox. 2020 and 2021 were very solid years for Xbox 1st party. This year is missing a big AAA releases after Redfall and Starfield delays. It's bad for 1st party, but people who are buying an Xbox now and getting GP have tons of games to play. 

The first half of next year has Starfield, Redfall, Forza Motorsport, and Minecraft Legends. That's a pretty damn good first half. We still don't know what the 2nd half will bring.