140 or more
People want exclusives. But producing a game that can't be on PS4 is very hard. Developing a game that cannot be on PS5 is gonna be that much harder. The supply issues are limiting sales right now. But what these issues along with deminishing returns and the difficulty to even make something that would require a PS6 also do, is prolonging this console cycle. In addition I do not think that sony would want a transition period this long again. So I expect the PS5 (and Series X/S) to last for 10 years before the next ones release. And sales of the PS5 to get insignificant 3 years after that (2033).
Mobile gaming is part of the gaming market (and a big one), but it is not eating away at the console share. I expect mobile to act as a trojan horse in the future. People naturally will game on their mobile phone. And some will inevitably upgrade to consoles and/or pc. The console market did not grow significantly (consoles sold per generation) over the last 2 to 3 generations. I expect that to change because of the mobile trojan horse. And because of population growth. And because more people in developing countries are getting out of poverty and into consumer electronics.
Also the diversity of available games is bigger than ever. You get kid friendly stuff like always. But even 15 years ago I had a hard time pointing at games specifically for adults (and I do not simply mean violence or sex). Less and less people will stop gaming in theor adult life. That is another growth factor.
Inhibitors for the PS5 are way steeper competition from Microsoft this time, as well as supply issues (should they remain for very long) and deminishing returns: if all third parties are going to have really good ports on the switch 2, the PS5 as a graphics powerhouse will have an argument less.
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