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curl-6 on 24 August 2022
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

I mean, we're obviously not seeing eye to eye on this given our bet where you don't think PS5 and Xbox Series combined can hit 56 million by 2024 or 130 million lifetime.

But really, PS5 front loaded? When it's entire life so far has been severely supply constained and it has yet to get meaningful exclusives? That just doesn't make sense.

Sales trends since 2017 have shown that Switch does not directly compete with the dedicated home consoles, and Microsoft's acquisitions are not going to turn the tide because the vast majority of games will still come to PS5, they'd simply be leaving too much money on the table not to. Gamepass is not as big a factor as fans make out either, if it was the Series S would be sold out worldwide.

I believe the data shows the exact opposite.  In fact, outside of Nintendo's and Sony's quarterly reports, the only region where we get actual hard numbers is Japan.  In Japan, it is quite clear that the PS5 has pathetic software sales.  People in Japan have almost no interest at all in buying PS5 games.  That is what the hard data tells us.  The reason for this, is because all of the best selling games in Japan (3m+) are on the Switch.  PS5's best selling game can barely crack 100k physical.  Switch does in fact compete with PS5.

We can see from the numbers we have in 2017, 2018, etc that Switch's rise did not gouge into PS4's sales. The two coexisted rather than directly competing. There's no reason PS5 should be any different. They are totally different products, like family cars and motorbikes or Call of Duty and Mario.

Japan is just one country. The world at large is very different as we can see from regional breakdowns.

PS5 + XS combined are now over 38 million; that means they would have to sell less than 18 million more over the next 16 months (which includes two holiday seasons) for our bet to go the way you forecast. Do you honestly think that's likely at this point?