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I really think that Nintendo will ship more than 5.5m units in Q2. It's tracking significantly ahead of 2019 and, unlike 2020, should have had the first week or so shipments of a new iteration launch (the OLED). I'm going to guess 5.75M hardware shipped.

Mario Golf will likely be around 3M sold. Skyward Sword will be around 4.5M. I don't think Game Builder Garage will sell over 1M copies. Animal Crossing and Mario Kart will have added another million or so.