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hinch said:

Yeah its pretty obvious a new Switch is in the works.

Going to say they're gearing up for Switch 2 next year (Q4). By which time it will be just over 5 years since the NSW launch, which sounds about right for a Nintendo hardware cycle.

Nintendo has never released a successor to a platform as successful as the Switch less than 6 years before the initial release.

The Game Boy Color took forever. And if you don't even count it as a successor, then the gap between the GB and GBA was even more pronounced. 

The 3DS launched 6 years and a few months after the DS

The Wii U launched 6 years after the Wii.

I know the DS launched not too long after the GBA. But the Switch has outsold the GBA by a notable margin, and the DS was genuinely going to be a third-pillar. But by late 2005 or so, Nintendo saw the writing on the wall. The DS had earned its spot beyond third pillar and as a true successor to the GBA. 

The Switch could have a successor in late 2022, but I don't see it. Q1 2023 seems the earliest, and I find Q4 2023 the most likely of all.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima