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As a closer look what Barozi is talking about, here are the current forecasts for the outcome of the election:
| Uhrzeit | Institut | CDU/CSU | SPD | AfD | FDP | LIN | GRÜ | FW | SSW | Son | CDU/CSU | SPD | AfD | FDP | LIN | GRÜ | SSW | Gesamt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32,9 % | 20,5 % | 12,6 % | 10,7 % | 9,2 % | 8,9 % | 1,0 % | – | 4,0 % | 246 | 153 | 94 | 80 | 69 | 67 | – | 709 | ||
| 18:00 | Infratest | 25,0 % | 25,0 % | 11,0 % | 11,0 % | 5,0 % | 15,0 % | – | – | 8,0 % | 200 | 197 | 87 | 87 | 39 | 119 | 1 | 730 |
| 18:00 | Fgr. Wahlen | 24,0 % | 26,0 % | 10,0 % | 12,0 % | 5,0 % | 14,5 % | – | 8,5 % | 198 | 215 | 83 | 99 | 41 | 120 | – | 721 | |
| 18:00 | Fgr. Wahlen | 200 | 217 | 83 | 100 | – | 121 | – | 721 | |||||||||
| 18:43 | Infratest | 24,7 % | 24,9 % | 11,3 % | 11,2 % | 5,0 % | 14,8 % | – | – | 8,1 % | 198 | 197 | 89 | 88 | 40 | 117 | 1 | 730 |
| 18:45 | Fgr. Wahlen | 24,2 % | 25,8 % | 10,1 % | 11,8 % | 5,0 % | 14,7 % | – | – | 8,4 % | 200 | 213 | 83 | 98 | 41 | 121 | – | 756 |
| 19:00 | Fgr. Wahlen | 24,4 % | 25,6 % | 10,3 % | 11,6 % | 5,0 % | 14,7 % | – | – | 8,4 % | 202 | 211 | 85 | 96 | 41 | 121 | – | 756 |
| 19:14 | Infratest | 24,7 % | 24,9 % | 11,1 % | 11,7 % | 5,0 % | 14,6 % | – | – | 8,0 % | 198 | 197 | 88 | 92 | 39 | 115 | 1 | 730 |
| 19:31 | Fgr. Wahlen | 24,6 % | 25,7 % | 10,7 % | 11,7 % | 5,0 % | 14,4 % | – | – | 7,9 % | 198 | 206 | 86 | 94 | 40 | 116 | – | 740 |
https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2021/bundestagswahl-2021.html#prognosen-hochrechnungen
As an explanation, the percentages are the vote shares, the second part are the projected seats in the parliament. The topmost row is the last election. Ah yes, and SSW is a party representing a minority, which is why they may be excluded from the 5% barrier and can have a seat once they arrive at enough votes for one.
CDU/CSU was expected to be around 20%, so they are actually stronger than expected. Which also means that the current government coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD might be able to continue to govern, but with that result with the SPD as the leading party. That is, if they want to do that.
Last edited by Mnementh - on 26 September 2021
