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As a closer look what Barozi is talking about, here are the current forecasts for the outcome of the election:

Uhrzeit Institut CDU/CSU SPD AfD FDP LIN GRÜ FW SSW Son CDU/CSU SPD AfD FDP LIN GRÜ SSW Gesamt
  32,9 % 20,5 % 12,6 % 10,7 % 9,2 % 8,9 % 1,0 % 4,0 % 246 153 94 80 69 67 709
18:00 Infratest 25,0 % 25,0 % 11,0 % 11,0 % 5,0 % 15,0 % 8,0 % 200 197 87 87 39 119 1 730
18:00 Fgr. Wahlen 24,0 % 26,0 % 10,0 % 12,0 % 5,0 % 14,5 % 8,5 % 198 215 83 99 41 120 721
18:00 Fgr. Wahlen 200 217 83 100 121 721
18:43 Infratest 24,7 % 24,9 % 11,3 % 11,2 % 5,0 % 14,8 % 8,1 % 198 197 89 88 40 117 1 730
18:45 Fgr. Wahlen 24,2 % 25,8 % 10,1 % 11,8 % 5,0 % 14,7 % 8,4 % 200 213 83 98 41 121 756
19:00 Fgr. Wahlen 24,4 % 25,6 % 10,3 % 11,6 % 5,0 % 14,7 % 8,4 % 202 211 85 96 41 121 756
19:14 Infratest 24,7 % 24,9 % 11,1 % 11,7 % 5,0 % 14,6 % 8,0 % 198 197 88 92 39 115 1 730
19:31 Fgr. Wahlen 24,6 % 25,7 % 10,7 % 11,7 % 5,0 % 14,4 % 7,9 % 198 206 86 94 40 116 740

https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2021/bundestagswahl-2021.html#prognosen-hochrechnungen

As an explanation, the percentages are the vote shares, the second part are the projected seats in the parliament. The topmost row is the last election. Ah yes, and SSW is a party representing a minority, which is why they may be excluded from the 5% barrier and can have a seat once they arrive at enough votes for one.

CDU/CSU was expected to be around 20%, so they are actually stronger than expected. Which also means that the current government coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD might be able to continue to govern, but with that result with the SPD as the leading party. That is, if they want to do that.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 26 September 2021

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