I gave you a chance by reading the entire original post. The political predictions seem very out there, so that's strike one.
Strike 2 is that you assume Switch will be on the market for a long, long time. Not happening, at all. Even if we didn't get Switch 2 until 2026-2028, the Switch won't keep huge momentum until then and after its successor launches. Let's entertain that Nintendo waits until 2037 or so for a true Switch successor with only a mid-gen upgrade or two before then (kind of similar to upgrading PCs or phones). Those iterative upgrades will not provide enough interest over so long. And why not make a full-fledged successor if you're going to amp the power by large amounts multiple times in a product's life?
The most optimistic Switch prediction that can't be dismissed as radical in my mind is anything around 165-185 million. 200 millions probably isn't happening, and anything above that is extremely unlikely.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)
PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima
