Not necessarily. Changes to society and spending patterns didn't stop 12/31/20. People are still vacationing less than they used to, still working from home in industries that can do it, and therefore still more likely to buy smaller entertainment purchases (rather than Disney World trips). The bigger question is if and when that bump will go away. I'm thinking, to a degree, there will be a permanent shift in smaller purchase entertainment (such as video games) going forward because of COVID.
That doesn't explain why Switch was already up year over year in January or February 2020 over 2019. Or how a killer app like Animal Crossing wouldn't have pushed 2020 over 2019. What makes you think the 2020 baseline would have fallen below 2019? Now that the Animal Crossing bump is on its way down, we see that 2021's baseline is also up over 2020's, how do you explain that? Is there some kind of dark COVID energy causing sales acceleration after the initial inflation period?
Or perhaps there are other things that would have kept Switch momentum on the upswing without COVID. Apart from its killer apps (like Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8D, and Animal Crossing New Horizons), Switch's hybrid form factor offers new types of exposure to potential consumers that extends the Switch's selling period past that of a handheld or a home console. Then of course, the high volume of releases, this week alone has about 40. That would have been even higher if COVID hadn't had been a factor.
What makes you think that without COVID Switch would be down year over year, what's your evidence for that? Because it's certainly wasn't trending that way, before or after COVID.
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