As how the switch is going under 400k weekly now regularly, and going close to 350K it becomes more and more questionable how many units will sell this year.
This year it began very strong for it however with every month the sales become less and less impressive to the point where 350K was PS4 sales territory when it was peak in 2017/2018, which console had 20M peak year, therefore the potential of the switch for 30M for this year becomes more and more unbelievable, and going more like 25M. I think even if the PS5 and XBSX get better stock by the end of the year this also could take some effect on the switch sales, because I am sure now since the launch of those consoles switch gained some new sales because of the hard to find Xbox and PS consoles, cuz some people that want to buy something to play they can't find PS5 or xbox and they take switch.
Also see the previous gen, 3DS was doing 13 and 14M per year and in 2014, when PS4 and XB1 got more in stock, the 3DS fell to only 8M for the year. Big drop.
Once the PS5 and XBSX got in full stock switch will drop to probably 200-250K per week.
So it is more like 50/50 if it will reach #3 by end of this year.
And together with the expected switch decline for the next year, switch may do something like 15M next year, so it's not also sure 100% if it will pass PS4 by end of 2022 (which should be around 117M-118M by this time)
Also with the disappointing OLED model revealed, as anyone was waiting for the Switch Pro, now surely the sales won't pick up, as they would if there was real Pro model. One more reason why Switch will probably not make more than 25M this year. And also one more reason why Nintendo may launch the successor sooner than expected.
So basically you are showing one good way the sales for the system can happen, I will show one other not so good way (but pretty realistic one).
by end of 2021 - 100/102M
by end of 2022 - 115M
After this it is too difficult to predict, cuz they may launch successor after which point switch will just fall of a cliff. just like pretty much every console did in the last few generations, and switch will make no more than 10M total after the successor launch. (and as there are rumors that this Pro model now will become Switch 2 there is a good chance they will not wait much, more like 2023 launch)
However if they wait till 2024 switch may reach 125-130M total lifetime, which is still impressive however far far away from the #2 or #1 selling console.
And I will just give an example for every optimist here, with the PS4, they are different consoles obviously, and they have different lifecycle however I am giving an example how the PS4 in 2018 was doing 250-300K per week and no one would believe that in 2 years will have these big drops in sales to 8M in 2020 and to 2M(still questionable) this year. Just like the PS4 death was probably the biggest and the worst death out of all consoles, till now this can happen with every other console too (if the manufacturer don't make the right steps). So just never say never, because everything is possible. Even the haters and no sayers in 2018 were saying a little better numbers for the PS4 ahead than they are now.
If Nintendo launch the successor in 2023 Switch will not pass 130M lifetime.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: I think Nintendo is far more concerned with yearly sales than they are generation sales like we are. Generation sales lead to massive differences in revenue and profit, but if they can stabalize yearly sales figures to be similar yearly then they don't have to explain to shareholders why there are drops in sales on those rough years. Generational growth should be sought after, for sure, but not in a way that leads to 30 million one year and 10 million another year. If they are convinced that between 2021 - 2024 they can sell more consoles by having Switch 2 launch in 2023, then that is what they are going to do. I'm convinced this is why the pro wasn't announced and won't be. They know they will sell far less consoles if they released a pro this year and therefore delayed Switch 2 release until 2024. History shows they release successor consoles roughly 2 years after their final iteration of the current console, and if the current one was coming this year that would mean they'd have to deal with people complaining about a recently purchased device becoming obselete in a short time span, which would hurt Switch 2 sales out of the gate. They don't want to tick off their fans by replacing recently released hardware so quickly, they don't want their shareholders on their backs about peak/down years, and they want generational growth obtained via momentum and constant relevance in the market. In my opinion the only way to do that is to scrap the Pro model altogether and release Switch 2 in 2023, 6 years after Switch 1.