I think AC/MK8D should be in their own tier. Those will leg up to 55-60M at this pace.
ACNH will do 5-7M in the holiday quarter this year and be sitting at 31-33M.
That's ~54.5M with an aggressive 76% drop in 2021 off of only a 9 month first year. What if Lite gets a bundle this year or next year @$200 or even cheaper (150? 170?). Could stay over 10M next year and then it legs past 60M.
MK8D same story. Expecting 4-5M in this year's holiday quarter has it sitting at 33-34M by end of 2020 (that's 10.5-11M, peak year in year 4 lol, and this current quarter was just the largest non-holiday/launch quarter it ever had - last quarter was second largest).
2021 - 9.0M
2022 - 6.5M
2023 - 5.0M
2024 - 3.0M
LTD - 4.0M
That's 60M. I guess if they launch MK9 sometime in 2022-2024 it might dent these numbers, but we're still looking at 50-55M.
BOTW and SSBU expecting mid-to-high 30M range. BOTW has now slightly beat out SSBU for the past 2 quarters, which I did not expect, especially given SSBU's strong extended DLC support. I imagine this trend continues and it pulls back ahead in a year or so. Expecting 35-40M range for BOTW and ~35M for Smash. These are the top heavyweights, with SMO/Pokemon rounding out this category.
Maybe Mario 3D World and BOTW2 join this category (at this point, I'm doubtful that BOTW2 doesn't cross 20M - it will have a mega opening that'll make it hard to miss the 20M mark I think. Anything beyond that depends on WOM and further NSW hardware legs.
I agree that MK8DX will cross 50 mil and AC has a very good shot at it as well, but I don't really see a reason to give them their own tier though. Its interesting to compare them to the others.
I'm very doubtful that 3D World will join the heavyweight category, but a new 3D Mario almost certainly would and that's likely to happen. Pokémon Gen 9 is also a shoo-in.