| Leynos said: Switch will finish in the 110 million range going by how Nintendo systems usually go out with a whimper in software support and Sony systems go out with a boom. PS4 probably finished close to 130 maybe a little more. |
Wii made a bit over 100 million, Switch on its 43rd month is barely 4.5 million behind Wii on the same period, but Switch in one Christmas season behind and it's pretty much confirmed to surpass Wii total cumulative monthly by at least 10 million units this December
This was Wii sales pattern after its 3rd year:
2008: 25.95 (peak)
2009: 20.53 (-21%)
2010: 15.58 (-24%)
2011: 9.84 (-37%)
2012: 3.98 (-59%)
2013 onward: 1.79 (-55%)
Using a (very) conservative 30.5 million estimate for Switch:
2020: 30.5 (peak)
2021: 24.1
2022: 18.3
2023: 11.5
2024: 4.7 / new system release?
2025 onward: 2.1
Total lifetime: 138 million
So if Switch perform like Wii, 130 million is the bare minium lifetime sales for Switch. The system has a really good shot for 150 million, 2021 line up so far looks better than 2020, system support won't stop anytime soon
To get only 110 million Switch will need to crash and burn, like decreasing 50% YOY in 2021, 2022 and then again in 2023 a sharp 87.5% decline in mere 3 years from the system peak. Not realistic
