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Ryng on 15 October 2020
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mZuzek said:
Ryng said:

Dude, WHAT?

ok, you have some good points there, hell i'll give you the benefit of the doubt that Switch could MAAAAAAAAAAAAYBE sell less than the PS4, but i mean... that's like, super unlikely.

Just look at facts and current trends. "no one know what's gonna happen with Switch" ok but like it's selling at Wii/NDS level of peak 2008/2009, AND IT HAS SHORTAGES, which mean domand is actually higher than the numbers we are seeing right now.

Of course using some logic someone would expect Switch sales to stay very stong for a while. and considering that this year is pretty much safe to say Switch should end at around 80 million (probabily more than that but i'll make a safe bet), Switch only need another strong year to pretty much be guaranteed to outsell the PS4.

Unless you expect PS4 sales to better than expected and reach something like 140 million but this seem kinda crazy at this point, Sony looks like is giving up with PS4 production and focus on PS5. Even 130 million seem extremely hard.

I mean, again, nothing is impossible but at this point i'd give PS4 <10% chances of winning against Switch, and i'll be extremely surprised if this happen.

EDIT: For the record, i think Switch will do over 150 million... so even with the best scenario for PS4 i'd still predict Switch>PS4

Sure, the Switch can do it, I just don't think it will. Think 2020 is the peak year, it'll still be going strong next year, and then sales will start declining fast, but maybe I'm wrong in thinking that. It just seems to be the rule for Nintendo home consoles, but yeah, the Switch isn't really that. Kinda get the feeling that we'll get another Mario, BotW 2, and after those two we're not gonna get more major hardware-moving games.

I'm also thinking the PS5 will have a slow start, meaning the PS4 will continue to sell well for at least another year or two.

PS4 realistically will stop at 125 million, with 130 million being in my opinion the best case scenario. i don't know what you mean with "low start", but i think you severely underestimate next gen consoles. PS5 launch is going to be huge, Sony already confirmed pre orders are higher than PS4, and Sony plan to ship (so sell) more units than PS4 at launch. If anything, i agree PS5 lifetime won't beat PS4 but at launch it'll be bigger.

But anyway, 125 or 130 million for PS4 isn't that important, i think we all agree this is gonna be the range.

Now, for Switch, look at this:

2020 - 28 million / 80 million
2021 - 20 million / 100 million (-30%)
2022 - 12 million / 112 million (-40%)
2023 - 6 million / 118 million (-50%) <--- Switch 2 in November
Lifetime - 120 million

You  see how pessimist (and unrealistic i would say) i went with those estimate, yet it still reach 120 million so easy?

Keep in mind 2020 line up, outside of Animal Crossing, was absolutely shit, and for the next years we have at least one new model (probabily more), and they still have to make a pricedrop.

And 2020 had shortages for all year.......

There is absolutely nothing that suggest Switch to drop like this. "could happen because Switch is an unprecedented situation" is not a reason.

Oh yeah, of course, November 2023 seem early, not impossible at all but considering how many times Nintendo said Switch is barely in the half of his lifecycle, 2024 seem more likely for Switch 2.

Imo, Switch will beat PS4 by a huge margin.