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Ryng on 15 October 2020
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mZuzek said:
 

Switch hasn't and won't beat PS4.

Dude, WHAT?

mZuzek said:
YanisFromFrance said:
However, the Switch has a 6 million lead over the PS4 with one Christmas less for the Switch, right?
It is impossible for sales to fall.

Nothing is impossible, you can't know what'll happen in the future. Surely no one imagined Wii sales would decline like they did. Not saying the Switch will fall off a cliff like that, I don't think it will, but it is definitely possible that sales will slow down enough for it to not reach the PS4. With Sony consoles, all of them have had pretty similar sales curves, so it's easier to make a prediction based on those, but Nintendo consoles aren't as consistent. The handhelds are, I suppose, but it remains to be seen if a hybrid console like the Switch can continue selling for years when up against renewed competition. This is pretty much an unprecedented situation in the console market.

ok, you have some good points there, hell i'll give you the benefit of the doubt that Switch could MAAAAAAAAAAAAYBE sell less than the PS4, but i mean... that's like, super unlikely.

Just look at facts and current trends. "no one know what's gonna happen with Switch" ok but like it's selling at Wii/NDS level of peak 2008/2009, AND IT HAS SHORTAGES, which mean domand is actually higher than the numbers we are seeing right now.

Of course using some logic someone would expect Switch sales to stay very stong for a while. and considering that this year is pretty much safe to say Switch should end at around 80 million (probabily more than that but i'll make a safe bet), Switch only need another strong year to pretty much be guaranteed to outsell the PS4.

Unless you expect PS4 sales to better than expected and reach something like 140 million but this seem kinda crazy at this point, Sony looks like is giving up with PS4 production and focus on PS5. Even 130 million seem extremely hard.

I mean, again, nothing is impossible but at this point i'd give PS4 <10% chances of winning against Switch, and i'll be extremely surprised if this happen.

EDIT: For the record, i think Switch will do over 150 million... so even with the best scenario for PS4 i'd still predict Switch>PS4

Last edited by Ryng - on 15 October 2020