@Shadow1980
I really like reading your post most of the times and you are one of my favourite user in those threads.
I hope you'll see this comment as an advice and not criticism.
I think something you are missing as a predictor is the "fantasy". That's actually a very important factor. Fantasy does not mean making unrealistic and stupid predictions, it just mean that you can see things outside of the written story. I talked about something very similar in a youtube video, where people were saying "NO YOU CAN'T SAY AC NH WILL SELL FOR SURE 10 MILLION IN JAPAN, THAT'S MORE THAN THE BEST SELLING GAME", and is very worthless to say i was right.
Looking at the history of the market is very important for predictions, i totally agree, and that's why i think you are a very good analist. (yes i just used the word analist)
but lack of fantasy is a big problem, and if you wanna be one of the best, you really should start to be more brave with your predictions. Fuck if something seem insane, if you find reasons to something crazy happening, and you have the felling of a crazy prediction happening, then just do it. Look at me and Tbone. We don't give a fuck what people say, and we keep doing a lot of good predictions.
I will not reply to every points you made, because you can understand is just so much to read. if you want my opinion on the whole Animal Crossing, COVID, and Switch sales, i'll just say this:
COVID or not COVID, there's no way Switch would have sold less in 2020 than in 2019. Switch is not just slighly up YOY, it's massacring last year peformance, WITH SHORTAGES, there is no way that withouth COVID Switch would be down YOY right now. 2020 was destinated to be up YOY.
Now, if the biggest reason for this increase is COVID, or Animal Crossing, i don't really care. All i know is that both had a very important role, and made those insane numbers possible.
