This week the thread asking when Switch will pass the PS4's lifetime sales got bumped and I had voted for "second half of 2024" a long time ago. That Switch would eventually beat the PS4 has been a given since spring 2017 in my opinion, and Switch was on track to pull it off. But this year's sustained uptick in sales rate will make it happen sooner than 2024, especially in combination with Sony's decision to move on to the PS5 quickly which in turn puts a lower ceiling on PS4 lifetime sales now.
There was another interesting thread earlier this year that asked if Switch can sell 150m lifetime; that was bold at the time (come to think of it, probably a tbone51 thread). If I remember correctly, I laid out the maths that if Switch can average 17.5m per year from 2020-2023, it would be at ~120m by the end of 2023, giving it a shot at north of 140m due to the length of its lifespan. About half a year ago an average of 17.5m per year seemed too optimistic for most people, but now it looks like a piece of cake with both 2020 and 2021 set to finish far above that average.
Which also means that my post from five months ago will have been to pessimistic as far as people realizing what a beast Switch is going to be:
Before I thought your expectations for the Switch were too optimistic but now I realize that you just understand stuff like this better than most others. Props for getting this right way before almost anyone else. It took till the second half of 2020 for me to see the light to put it one way but it's still gonna feel good being ahead of the general consensus by at least a few months. I'm curious, what made you think it was a given as early as spring 2017?